MacArthur Syndrome-Market Moves Reincarnate
Reincarnation of market moves is a very powerful tool in both projection and confirmation of important market moves. At Ermanometry Research we refer to this very common phenomenon, as the "The MacArthur Syndrome."
Figures 14 & 18 in the Log Spiral article in the February issue of Stocks & Commodities illustrated the "reincarnation" of the 1102 & 1147 day market moves on segments of the log spiral.
Reincarnation of market moves is a very powerful tool in both projection and confirmation of important market moves. At Ermanometry research we refer to this very common phenomenon, as the "The MacArthur Syndrome." General MacArthur is famous for his statement, upon leaving the Philippine Islands, "I Shall Return." He is also famous for another statement, "Old Soldiers Never Die, They Just Fade Away. " Market moves always return, never die, and although they may to "fade away" for a while, they are merely not visible on the plane. Think of an underground river that rises to the surface occasionally. Or, child playing hide and seek, "now you see me, now you don’t." Ermanometry uses various methods to decode the hiding places of these playful market moves and bring them into the sunlight. They can run, but they can’t hide!
Please note that once again we are using the same ’74 -‘78 moves to illustrate a principle. Are you beginning to get the feeling that these moves might contain some sort of market DNA? Maybe these moves are a fractal. Perhaps,but we never use the word fractal. Marketing wizards with no respect for the amazing beauty of true fractals, and the genius of Benoit Mandelbrot, have thrown the word around indiscriminately, applying it to everything and anything with which they could stretch a connection. It has become a buzzword. We have not seen a single instance of the proper application of this proposition! If we may twist a familiar expression: Marketing swine are casting pseudo pearls before eager, unsuspecting seekers of trading truth. Any day now we expect to receive solicitations from "FRACTAL DEPOT-BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!" for "new and improved fractals", "industrial strength fractals", ad nauseum! We apologize for digressing, but we do feel very strongly about get rich schemes and buzzwords. " Back to the future" (because the 1473 day move in this example will return again ) and on to the chart explanation:
Using constant dollar data, the S&P made a major high in 1968 (the constant dollar peak from the 1932 low) and declined to 1982. The number of days from the 1968 peak to the NOMINAL PRICE LOW in 1974 is 1473. Beginning at the 1974 low, the market moved up for 497 days to the 1976 peak, and down for 362 days to the 1978 low. Using 497 and 362 as legs of a right triangle, generates a hypotenuse of 614. The sum of the 3 sides, the perimeter, equals 1473.
As one works with various market moves they become like old friends with distinct personalities. This fellow walked the straight and narrow from 1968 down to 1974, but the bottoming out process warped him a bit and he got mixed up with "bad company". As punishment he was reincarnated as a triangle! Even market moves have karma!